I do 2-3 trips every year to the BWCA and/or Quetico and I always bring a 20 degree HG Incubator. It can get surprisingly cold at night during the shoulder seasons, and it's never felt to me like it was too warm in the summer.
One other thing to consider. I don’t know if it is a critical amount of required mass of down or what, but my 20 degree quilts have no problem going below that rating by a good margin, my 40s not nearly as much.
I was going to say that too! Not just once but on so many occasions I noticed this when approaching the limit. I figured it was the difference your body can feel between 30 and 40° vs. 10 and 20°. I've only noticed this on the top quilts thought. The underquilts always work, except when I don't have it set properly.
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