If you are hiking in on a trip where a quick bail out would at the very least be very inconvenient, if not nearly impossible, do you prepare for the absolute worse known to have ever happened? And even then, who is to say a new record could not be established for a given time period?
Or do you prepare simply for reasonably expected temps, realizing that if something very unusual occurs, you probably won't die or even get frost bite, but might have a miserable night? Kind of like my first night ever in a hammock camping, in the high lonesome/Rockies. The early Sept 2006 low of 22F was not unexpected, I have experience 15F same time of year and lots of 20f. The surprise for me was the new skills and tricks involved in staying warm in a hammock. I did shiver until I abandoned the hammock for the ground about 0200(then warmed right up), which was very unpleasant, but I didn't die, obviously. However, if one looks at record temps for anywhere, it can really add to what would be needed for comfort. But maybe not for survival.
Here is what has me thinking about this. Because of the long running debates on the subject of global warming(which we don't need to have now), I have for years, every time I read the local paper, been noting the record lows and highs for Tupelo, MS. The main thing I note is that is has been years since we even broke 100F here, and this used to be a regular summer time occurrence, even well above 100F(actual temp not "feels like"). (record high 111F, July 29, 1930, 90 years ago)
The next thing I note is that the vast majority of the daily high temp records were set in the the 1950s to the 1930s or even earlier. ( though we do have some set in more recent years) Record lows seem to be all over the place, with a whole bunch set in both the 30s and 70s. The 70s is when scientists were declaring that a new ice age was upon us, after 30 years of lowering temps, then some one flipped a switch in 1980, right after I had moved from frigid Erie, PA down here to Tupelo, MS and we got a 103F in September! That was a horrible summer and even fall!
For example, in today's almanac: I see that we were 8ºF warmer than average at 61F yesterday, but the record was set at 75F in 1975, only 45 years ago. In recent days, I have noticed quite a few record high temps in the 1930s. But I was in for a shock. Apparently I had not checked on this day for recent years. The record low for Jan 27 was set in 1940. Not unusual. But that temp was minus 14F, with a MS town closer to the TN border clocking in at minus 19F!(actually, that temp was set Jan 30, 1966, when I was in HS) WHAT? Minus 19F? On the MS Gulf coast beaches it was +4F!
This was a surprise to me. I do remember a 3 or maybe 6 below a few times in my life down south. But I have no memory(of course, I wouldn't have memory for anything earlier than mid 1950s) of even hearing about minus teens or right at minus 20.
So it looks like if I wanted to be comfy even in the worst Jan weather MS had ever dredged up, I would have to head out prepared for minus 20F. Which is something I have never done and probably never will(but I have on my western mountain trips, even when not dead of winter). And I don't plan to change that. So apparently my choice is to be well prepared for reasonably possible temps, but not the all time records, not for the worst thing that has ever happened during a given month. I guess I'll just have a cold night if it hits the fan that bad. Or, if in a hammock, just go to ground, as I have had to do before. Once.
What about you guys? What do you plan for, especially when you have to carry the weight and bulk on your back. and maybe up steep mountains?
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