Good News or Bad News

**Ramblinrev** · 09-02-2009, 14:29

Originally Posted by animalcontrol

I hereby call for all of your Christmas presents....

Cannibal can have your Easter candy

Now wait a minute... Easter candy is not dependent on the existence of the Easter Bunny. I de-mythologized the Easter Bunny many many years ago. However my wife still enjoys putting to gether Easter baskets and such. I think such as drastic move as to commandeer Easter candy over a discrediting of the Easter Buny is too extreme.

**BillyBob58** · 09-02-2009, 14:47

Originally Posted by Cannibal

Good point. This is "The Old Farmers' Almanac", or "The Original Farmer's Almanac". The one with the ornately drawn front cover, not the one with a picture on the front cover.

This one is from the plain Farmers Almanac, and it seems about identical to the one you posted:

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weathe...ter-weather-be

**SmokeHouse** · 09-02-2009, 14:55

Originally Posted by BillyBob58

This one is from the plain Farmers Almanac, and it seems about identical to the one you posted:

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weathe...ter-weather-be

Awwwwww this one show my area to be colder and wetter... hoping for more snow this year instead of ice...

**Mustardman** · 09-02-2009, 14:58

Originally Posted by animalcontrol

I hereby call for all of your Christmas presents....

Sure, give me the address where I can ship the bag of coal

**BillyBob58** · 09-02-2009, 15:01

Originally Posted by Mustardman

Not to be a downer, but no matter how complicated your equations, your ability to predict events that far in advance is essentially zero, and will remain zero as long as the universe operates under its current laws......................................The other source is the true method by which the almanac works - historical data..............
Ok, that's enough pedantic ranting, but as a scientist, I wish more folks would put their trust in proven, peer-reviewed, experimentally verified scientific research, and not folksy nonsense based on tricky wording and "top secret formulas".

All very true, no doubt. However, I started following the Old Farmers Almanac about a decade ago, after what appeared to be a couple of amazing overall predictions for the entire season, combined with some rather amazing dead on hits for a specific region within a day or so of the actual event.

Now I've got to say that I have seen it be dead wrong more than once. Therefore, I suppose it must all be no more than chance, beefed up a bit by what you say above, historical data.

None the less, when the Almanac calls for snow in an area where it does not usually snow at all most winters, and calls for it relatively early in the season like say, Nov 20th-23rd, and then it snows in that region and with in those days, and then you see that happen a few times, it is going to get your attention! And I have witnessed exactly that more than once.

But, I have also seen total error not just for certain days, but for the bulk of the season. So, must be just chance. It is still fun to follow. And hope!

**MrToot** · 09-02-2009, 15:19

Glad I have my JRB Old Rag UQ coming! I too am looking forward to it the cooold weather!

**trewornan** · 09-02-2009, 15:40

Originally Posted by Mustardman

Any semblance of accuracy in the farmer's almanac comes from one of two sources - one, their predictions are so vague that it's easy to say "hey that was right!" after the fact.

The other source is the true method by which the almanac works - historical data.

Sorry Mustardman but you've forgotten the human factor.

For example, I used to know an ex-fisherman from Penryn (unfortunately he's dead now, he was about eighty when I knew him) who could sniff the air, look at the sea and then give you a phenomenally accurate forecast for the next two or three days. How, I've no idea and I doubt he could have told you himself but I'm pretty sure science and mathematical formulae had nothing to do with it.

**Ramblinrev** · 09-02-2009, 15:43

Originally Posted by trewornan

Sorry Mustardman but you've forgotten the human factor.

For example, I used to know an ex-fisherman from Penryn (unfortunately he's dead now, he was about eighty when I knew him) who could sniff the air, look at the sea and then give you a phenomenally accurate forecast for the next two or three days. How, I've no idea and I doubt he could have told you himself but I'm pretty sure science and mathematical formulae had nothing to do with it.

That is short term... the Farmer's Almanac predicts up to 16 months in advance. Hardly an air sniff.

**Mustardman** · 09-02-2009, 16:46

Originally Posted by trewornan

How, I've no idea and I doubt he could have told you himself but I'm pretty sure science and mathematical formulae had nothing to do with it.

I've got a feeling science and mathematical formulae could have probably debunked his "ability", though

Even if you did a detailed statistical analysis, and he turned out to be correct more often than is possible with lucky guesses, you can STILL use science to explain his "knack" - it's been well documented that changes in barometric pressure, for example, can have physical effects on people, or that cloud formations can tell you a lot about weather in the near term.

There's no mystical "human factor" at work here - there are signals Nature tells you, and if you understand those signals you can explain them with math. It's not hokus pokus if someone hasn't described it mathematically, it just means no one has developed a working model yet.

And, as was pointed out, figuring out the weather for the next 2-3 days is a far cry from predicting what will happen a year and a half from now.